Generally, I can’t stand Monaco. I regard it as an outdated race on an unsuitable ‘track’ continued merely for the benefit of the rich and famous. Exciting races there are few and far between, and the fact that since 2004 only one winner has come from anything other than pole shows that it is hardly a race of surprises. Basically if it doesn’t rain, just watch the start to see if the pole sitter makes a hash of it…
With that in mind, it is difficult to make much in the way of predictions. Mercedes should dominate, but the track won’t let their massive power advantage show to the levels it used to. But before people get too excited, the 2013 race showed that they (and Rosberg) know how to set up a car for the streets of the Principality. Although there is a better chance for another winner, the quality of the Mercedes with both drivers having a Monaco win under their belt makes it difficult to look elsewhere – which explains the odds of 1.61 for Hamilton, 3.00 for Rosberg and 12.00 Bar. Actually, that 3.00 for Rosberg is looking a bit generous. The nicey-nicey battles we have seen so far are going to start getting more edgy, and in each race Rosberg will see the need for a win increasing. Those odds indicate that it is twice as likely that Lewis will win (62% to 33% roughly); but that does show the chances the others have!
The battle behind the Mercedes looks most interesting, and Alonso set down a marker on the Thursday P2 session. Yet this doesn’t seem reflected in the ‘Without Mercedes’ market, where he is at 5.50 with Ladbrokes, behind Vettel (2.62) and Ricciardo (2.75). That seems unfair on an excellent driver with 2 Monaco wins under his belt, and therefore the best value.
The other two traditional bets are also somewhat undermined by the nature of the track. A safety car to be deployed is currently running at 1.12 (around an 88% chance), with no SC at 5.50. With only 2 races of the last 10 not requiring a SC, the odds aren’t even generous at 1.12, but the logical bet would be that there will be a safety car. And that doesn’t even take the weather into account!
The average retirement rate in Monaco is 28%, which represents 6.2 cars – or 15.8 finishers if you prefer. Unsurprisingly, the market runs at <16 2.10, 16-17 3.25 and >17 3.00. The weather has to be taken into consideration though, and a wet or greasy track would change this. This therefore requires a call to be made on race day – a dry race track and the suggestion would be the 16-17 option, a wet track and <16 is the choice.
- Selected Bet
- Alonso to win in market without Hamilton or Rosberg (5.50 Ladbrokes)
- Other predicitons
- Safety car to be deployed (1.12 Bet365)
- Classified finishers:
- If wet: Under 16 (2.10 Bet365)
- If dry: 16-17 (3.25 Bet365)
2014 Season Totals (based on level stakes of 1 unit)
- Selected bets: 2 win, 2 lose for +0.88
- Safety car: 1 win, 3 lose for -0.78
- Finishers: 2 win, 2 lose for +0.05