F1 2014: Austria GP Preview

The Austrian GP presents something of a problem in that it is the first running of the race since 2003. Given the changes in personnel, let alone cars in that time, it is just not possible to use historical evidence as a pointer to what may or may not happen in the race. Given that this seasons predictions for both safety cars and number of finishers are based on historical data, that leaves just an attempt to find a value bet for the race.

As this has been written after qualifying, the adverse result for Hamilton has to be looked at. The question here is whether it was a technical problem that may have an impact in the race, or just a one-off. Either way, Hamilton is down at 5.50 to win the race from 9th on the grid. That seems just a little too long for me. If the Williams get off to a good start, and hold up the other Mercedes of Rosberg, then Hamilton could easily get past the intervening runners to get himself into the mix. Clearly that is not what people expect, with Rosberg 1.90 for the win compared to 4.33 for Massa and a frankly insulting 9.00 for Bottas. With so little else on offer, I would have to go for Hamilton to surge back into the title contention with a win that would rival almost any other of his career.

Summary:

  • Selected Bet
    • Hamilton to win (5.50 with many)
  • No other predictions

2014 Season Totals (based on level stakes of 1 unit)

  • Selected bets: 2 win, 4 lose for -1.12
  • Safety car: 3 win, 3 lose for -1.66
  • Finishers: 3 win, 3 lose for +0.05

(I said it was depressing last time, it isn’t getting any better!)

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