F1 2014: Hungary GP Preview

Well after the German GP predictions were blown apart thanks to Massa’s driving in the first corner of the race, I really need some help in this race. However, the fact that it is Hungary, one of the most tedious tracks in the F1 calendar, won’t help.

It is easier these days to start with the ‘standard’ bets. In terms of a safety car the last 10 years are split 8 No/2 Yes, and one of the deployments was in the rain which might be the case this weekend. At the moment the odds are 1.83 for either choice (representing a 109.1% book – that is where they make their money!). In this case, I am going to go for the ‘wait until the race day’ approach – if it is wet back Yes, and if it is dry back No.

The number of finishers market is <17 2.25, 17-18 2.75 and >18 3.25, I have been bitten by the three way split here too often, and so I am looking at the simpler market at 1.83 either side of 17.5 finishers. Going on average data the number of finishers should be 18, but that includes a disparity in the rain in 2006. Again, if wet go for >17.5, if dry go for <17.5.

As for the specific bet for the race, this is tricky. Hamilton is only at 1.53, mainly because of the car superiority and the fact that Hungary seems to something of a favourite track for this driver (4 wins out of the last 10). Ricciardo and Vettel share the odds of 3.50 for the non-Mercedes market, with Bottas at 4.50. Again, this seems fair as the circuit is not one that will really help the powerful Williams.

A bet on Maldonado not to actually be classified looks tempting at 2.37, given both the car and driver’s ability to blow up at any time, but in the end I think the Mercedes dominance and Hamilton’s history mean that a Grand Chelem is on the cards, and at 3.00 for the ‘Hat Trick’ (as Ladbrokes call it) of pole, fastest lap and win there is at least a little bit of value in it.

Summary:

  • Selected Bet
    • Hamilton to take pole, fastest lap and win (3.00 Ladbrokes)
    • Other predicitons
      • If dry:
        • Safety car to NOT be deployed (1.83 Bet365)
        • Classified finishers: Over 17.5 (1.83 Ladbrokes)
        • If wet:
          • Safety car to be deployed (1.83 Bet365)
          • Classified finishers: Under 17.5 (1.83 Ladbrokes)

2014 Season Totals (based on level stakes of 1 unit)

  • Selected bets: 2 win, 6 lose for -3.12
  • Safety car: 3 win, 4 lose for -2.66
  • Finishers: 3 win, 4 lose for -0.95
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