This isn’t turning out to be a good season prediction wise. It would appear that the random elements are just too much to cope with when it comes to safety cars and classified finishers (although my minor loss was nothing compared to the loss that the safety car appeared to cause Rosberg in Hungary). That said, the more considered race bets aren’t really working either.
At least in Belgium we should have a good race. Without doubt this is my favourite track of the season, and it will be interesting to see how the cars handle it in their new configurations. And that is just in the dry – no matter what today’s forecast may say, you never know with Spa.
Looking at the two standard markets, without even checking the odds I will plump for a safety car being deployed. The fast track will almost certainly result in someone having an off, and as probably at a speed that will shower the track in carbon fibre. As such this will call out the car for half a dozen laps to sweep up! It would appear the bookies agree, with 1.50 the best out there for a safety car period (vs 2.62 for no such deployment).
The number of finishers is based around 17.5 again, with under the preferred option at 1.57. If Hungary can have fewer finishers then it has to be favoured, especially as there is a great opportunity to lose half a dozen at the first La Source corner.
There are a number of potential ‘race’ markets. The ‘not to be classified’ market looks interesting, with Vergne at 2.75 despite having retired five times this season, but Vettel at 4.50 has to be tempting with the troubles that have plagued him both this season, and in FP1 which resulted in him missing FP2. The market without Hamilton or Rosberg also looks interesting, with the odds favouring Bottas by some margin. However, Ricciardo is priced at 4.33 which seems generous for the Hungarian GP winner, but his FP performance wasn’t enough to make him a shoe-in for that position. Of course, the Hamilton/Rosberg dual forecast would appear to be the safest bet, but at 1.50 it hardly offers any value. At this stage I need a better return, and so I think the Vettel bet offers the best margin – pretty much nails him on for a podium then…
- Selected Bet
- Vettel not to be classified (4.50 Ladbrokes)
- Other predicitons
- Safety car to be deployed (1.50 Ladbrokes)
- Classified finishers: Under 17.5 (1.57 Ladbrokes)
2014 Season Totals (based on level stakes of 1 unit)
- Selected bets: 2 win, 7 lose for -4.12
- Safety car: 3 win, 5 lose for -3.66
- Finishers: 3 win, 5 lose for -1.95